LiquidPulse — LiquidPulse

Historical Scenarios

Walk through real past scenarios to see how the framework would have read each period.

Viewing scenario

ScenarioCOVID QE Bull Run (2020-21)·Apr 2020 → Nov 2021

Layer 1 — Signal Cascade

Strict P1 Risk-On fired in two windows: May 29 → Jul 24, 2020 and Oct 30, 2020 → Mar 26, 2021. It turned Transition before the May 2021 crash.

Stablecoin MCAP went from ~$6B to $130B+. Under the current %-of-supply rule, P2 was green through most of the cycle.

DXY panic-spiked above 102 in March 2020, then reset. The strict DXY rule flipped Risk-On after three completed sub-100 weekly closes.

P4 was green only in strict rotation bursts. The broad BTC.D collapse was real, but the scored gate only recognizes sharp weekly momentum windows.

P5 fired during depressed-base ETH recoveries in 2020. By the main 2021 altseason, ETHBTC was already above the depressed-base zone, so it is not marked green for the core preset.

Deeply negative through most of 2020 — shorts paying longs as market climbed a wall of worry.

Steadily building with rising price — healthy accumulation, not leverage excess.

Coinbase premium sustained >1% for weeks. Korean premium elevated. Institutional demand clear.

1/5 — Macro Signals

Long Exposure3/4 → Majors + Select AltsFULL ACCUMULATE

95%

BTC 53%

ETH 23%

Established 19%

Cash 5%

Step 1 — Positioning Signals → Raw %

FundingACC

OIACC

PremiumsACC

3 ACC → 100% raw

Step 2 — Gate Combo → Evidence-Anchored Cap

Signal	Weight	Status	Priority
P1 M2	10	ON	+10
P2 Stables	5	ON	+5
P3 DXY	4	ON	+4
P4 BTC.D	1	TRN	0
Total			19/20

Diagnostic priority score: 19/20 (not the cap formula)

Gate combo: P1+P2+P3 → evidence cap 95%

P1+P2+P3 historical combo - 95% evidence-anchored cap.

ETF modifier is neutral in the simulator.

ETF modifier: Neutral ETF flow ×1.00 → ETF-adjusted cap 95%(neutral default; ETF flow unavailable)

Step 3 — Macro Floor (Majors + Select Alts)

Minimum exposure when tier is active: 5%

Result

max(100% × 95% ETF-adjusted cap, 5%) = max(95%, 5%) = 95%(capped from 100%)

Layer 2 — Deployment Tiers

Majors + Select Alts activeMajors-Established 80-20

→Majors-Established 80-20 · Sizing: Accumulate — size up to max within tier

Deploy Majors-Established 80-20

Sizing: Aggressive · BTC/ETH split → 70/30 default